December corn closed at 418 ¼, down -4 3/4 cents. March ’26 corn closed at 436 1/4, down -4 1/2 cents. Last week, corn saw some selling pressure early on, but finished strong with shorts covering positions into Labor Day weekend. Corn has now made 4 weeks of higher highs and higher lows and has bounced off the 50-day moving average. Support is at 395 and 400. Resistance is at 418, 425 and 430. 

Corn has been supported by drier weather in the Eastern Corn Belt and parts of the Southern Corn Belt which has brought new drought concerns, in addition to disease pressure found in recent crop tours. It may be too early to have a significant effect but there have been some reports of scattered frost in the northern Midwest. As of August 31, 90% of the US corn crop reached the dough stage, only 1 point below the 5-year average. Crop progress data showed the crop was 58% dented, while 15% was listed as mature. Corn conditions are now 69% good/excellent, falling 2 points. The worst corn conditions were recorded in Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. Illinois saw the biggest decrease in corn ratings, falling 6% from the previous week. Illinois corn is rated 17% poor/very poor. Corn conditions last year at this time were 65% good/excellent. The yield estimate made in August by the USDA at 188.8 bpa is likely the peak. Any changes to yield going forward will likely be lower. Corn demand has been strong from buyers outside of China due to higher shipping prices in South America. Top buyers of US corn last week were Mexico, Colombia, and Japan. 

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Volatility and COT

Volatility in corn has been increasing. Realized volatility has risen from single digits to 13%, while implied volatility reached 18.6%. This trend in volatility means larger moves could be ahead as harvest approaches. Corn closed 5 cents higher during yesterday’s session, and open interest increased 10,500 contracts indicating new long positions being added. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed managed money traders adding 33,964 contracts, bringing their net short position to -110,686 contracts. More short covering can happen going forward, especially with a close over 420.  

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TRADE IDEAS IN DECEMBER '25 CORN

450 CALL

Buy December 450 Call 4 1/2

Price: 4 1/2     Cost: $225 Debit/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions. 

December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/265 (79 Days) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

MAXIMUM GAIN: UNLIMITED

Buy 1 December 440 Call 6.62 1/2
Sell 1 December 470 Call 2 ¼

440/470 CALL SPREAD

Price: 4.37 1/2    Cost: $218.75 Debit/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions. 

December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (79 Days) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

MAXIMUM GAIN: 30 cents or $1,500/Trade Package minus Premium Paid

A trader buying the 440/470 call spread will pay $218.75 per contract plus commissions.

Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading

Direct 312-765-7311 Toll Free 800-993-5449

hschmit@walshtrading.com    www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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